Why Did Washington Pending Sales Drop 8% in December?
Why did Washington pending home sales fall 8% in December 2025?
The drop reflected constrained choice, softer buyer sentiment, and elevated mortgage rates limiting contract signings. In Southwest Washington, supply remains at just 2.8 months of inventory, keeping competition elevated.
Inventory Squeeze Intensifies
Washington ended December with 11,718 active listings, up 23% year over year, yet still tight versus demand.
National inventory was 1.18 million homes, the 2025 low, reducing options and delaying commitments. Regional active listings climbed 64% year-over-year from June 2024 to June 2025 in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area, though listings still remain below pre-pandemic levels.
King County listings rose 26% yet remained limited.
Seasonal Slowdown and Slower Turnover
Holiday season conditions cut new listings from November levels and reduced buyer engagement.
Median days on market rose to 50.
Price dynamics loosened, with 21.1% price drops and a 98.6% sale-to-list ratio.
Market Signals
Closed sales rose nearly 28% from November as earlier contracts completed, even as pending sales slipped.
Is Washington’s Pending-Sales Dip Seasonal or a Trend?
December’s contract slowdown sharpened concerns beyond inventory constraints and buyer caution.
Pending sales fell 24.3% from November, consistent with holiday and weather friction.
Seasonal adjustment is required before treating the month-to-month collapse as structural.
Year over year, December was down 1.7% at 4,239 versus 4,312.
Homes for sale rose 13.2% year over year to 22,747. In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue CBSA, pending listings were down 9.97% year over year in December 2025.
Evidence of a Broader Drift
Longitudinal analysis shows repeated midyear soft patches, including July’s decline and September’s stalled pace.
April reversed March gains and then slipped 4% year over year, reinforcing intra-year seasonality.
Yet listings surged 42% YoY in April and Seattle supply reached 2.9 months.
Seattle’s inventory growth is increasingly giving buyers more options and negotiation leverage, especially for less updated properties.
Washington homes sold rose 6.2% YoY, masking softer contract momentum temporarily.
An 8% four-county pending-sales drop heightens 2026 risk.
Washington Pending Sales vs U.S. Regions: Who Fell Most?
How far did Washington’s contract pullback stray from the national downdraft.
Nationally, active inventory rose about 25% from July 2024 to July 2025, adding pressure to buyer activity.
Regional shock table
Washington pending sales fell 8 percent month over month in December, smaller than NAR’s 9.3 percent national drop.
In regional rankings, the Midwest led losses near 15 percent.
The West slid 13.3 percent.
The Northeast fell 11 percent, and the South declined 4 percent.
- Midwest: deepest monthly contraction, about 15 percent.
- West: second steepest, 13.3 percent, pressuring Washington’s set.
- South: mild 4 percent decline and only region up 2 percent year over year.
Metro divergence signals
Redfin tracked a 5.9 percent monthly decline nationally and a 7.4 percent annual drop.
Seattle’s speed softened, with 39.9 percent of homes going pending within 30 days in September 2025, indicating metro divergence.
Washington Inventory: Why Low Listings Stall Contracts
Although Washington’s active listings have risen sharply, supply remains too thin in the job core to keep contracts moving.
Statewide inventory rose 27.3% year over year to 20,052 listings in September 2025.
Inventory Gains Mask Urban Scarcity
Outside King County, 23 of 27 counties posted double digit increases.
Growth was led by Ferry at 61.5% and Thurston at 48.1%.
Yet King County hovered near one month of supply, keeping buyers concentrated on a small pool of homes.
Contract Friction Points
Seattle reached 2.9 months of supply, but listings can burn through in 87 days.
Inventory also slipped 0.8% month over month.
New Seattle listings hit 1,085 in September, but rental vacancies at 7.42% still signal persistent demand.
Seattle’s Seattle median rent hit $2,026 in March 2025, underscoring why demand stays firm even as listings rise.
Tight competition and price cuts on 31% of listings raise appraisal gaps.
That, in turn, increases closing delays.
What to Watch Next for Washington Pending Sales in 2026?
Contract delays tied to thin inventory have shifted attention to whether 2026 brings rate relief and listing growth. The goal is to restart Washington’s stalled pending sales.
Rate Relief Risks
Mortgage rates near 6.3% in spring 2026, down from 6.8% in spring 2025, may lift preapproval activity.
National data shows the 30-year fixed rate averaged about 6.75% in June 2025, underscoring how modest the current relief is.
Affordability improves slightly, but payment stress persists in Seattle’s $500K to $1.25M range.
Rate stability also supports cautious contract growth statewide.
Inventory Surge Signals
Inventory may reach pre-pandemic levels by spring 2026, with Seattle near 2,660 listings.
Kent days on market rise seven year over year, increasing fallout risk amid policy shifts.
Key items to monitor include monthly pending and closed counts, such as 305 pendings and 364 closings in January 2026.
Also watch for shadow supply from discretionary sellers.
Another signal is price slippage, with values down 0.4% statewide.
Assessment
Washington’s 8 percent December pending sales decline signals a fragile transaction pipeline entering 2026. Seasonal slowing explains part of the drop, but elevated mortgage rates and affordability strain keep demand constrained.
Limited new listings continue to choke contract volume, especially in move-up segments. If inventory fails to rebuild, price rigidity and longer marketing times may follow.
Near-term direction will hinge on rate policy, job growth, and whether sellers reenter the market during early 2026 reporting.
