Key Takeaways: U.S. single-family home prices rose 1.7% in September 2026 from a year earlier, but fell 0.3% from August, according to the Cotality Home Price Index released November 3. Cotality forecasts annual growth will slow to 0.9% by September 2027. The national number hides a split map: Illinois prices rose 6.9% in a year while Washington prices fell 1.0%, so where a home sits now matters more than the national average.
Home prices are still rising. They are just rising more slowly, and in some states they are not rising at all.
Cotality, a property information and analytics firm, released its Home Price Index for September 2026 on November 3. The index is built on repeat-sales transactions, the same homes selling again over time.
Up for the Year, Down for the Month, and Slowing Ahead
The Cotality release puts the national median price above $400,000. It does not give an exact median figure, so treat any exact number you see elsewhere with care.
| September 2026 Cotality reading | Figure |
|---|---|
| Change from September 2025 | +1.7% |
| Change from August 2026 | -0.3% |
| Forecast for September 2027 | +0.9% |
| National median price | Above $400,000 |
| States with negative annual growth | 6 |
That mix matters. An annual gain with a monthly dip means the market gained ground earlier in the year and gave a little back in September.
The forecast points the same way. Growth of 0.9% by September 2027 would be slower than the current 1.7%, not a national price drop.
Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp tied the outlook to borrowing costs and bargaining power. “Elevated mortgage rates are expected to limit home buying opportunities in 2027,” she said. “However, more inventory and greater buyer bargaining power will keep home price growth subdued, improving affordability. Market activity will favor regions with solid economic prospects, regions that attract retiring population and offer affordable homes.”
That fits the wider picture. Mortgage rates ended October at 7.24%, and pending home sales fell 7.3% in September, so demand is soft even where prices still climb.
The Split Map: 6.9% Growth in Illinois, Falling Prices in Washington and Texas
Here is the insight the national headline hides. Compared with August, appreciation strengthened in about half of metros and weakened in the other half, so there is no single national trajectory to underwrite from.
- Strongest states: Illinois up 6.9%, Rhode Island up 6.4%, Connecticut up 6.0%, New Jersey up 5.1%, and Ohio up 4.9% from a year earlier. Cotality credits chronic inventory shortages in the Great Lakes and New England.
- Falling states: Washington down 1.0%, Wyoming down 0.7%, Texas down 0.4%, and Hawaii down 0.1%. Six states in total recorded negative annual growth.
- Fastest accelerating metros: Cleveland, Albany, Providence, Greensboro, and St. Louis. Cotality links them to relative affordability, job growth, in-migration, and a recent price reset.
- Fastest cooling metros: Augusta, Austin, Seattle, San Jose, and Washington, DC, where Cotality points to job losses, building inventories, and weaker affordability.
Cotality also named the five markets its Market Risk Indicators flag as most at risk of price declines over the next 12 months: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Providence-Warwick, Tacoma-Lakewood, and Worcester.
One metro can sit on both lists. Providence shows up among the fastest accelerating areas and inside a flagged risk market, which is a reminder to read risk scores as a warning to check, not a verdict.
Renters are feeling the same slow turn from the other side, as rent growth just turned positive for the first time in over three years. Slow price growth plus slowly rising rents changes the math on holding a property through 2027.
What Beginner Investors Should Do With a Slowing, Split Market
- Underwrite your state, not the nation. A deal priced off a 1.7% national gain is mispriced in Illinois, up 6.9%, and in Washington, down 1.0%. Pull your state and metro reading before you set a price or a rent.
- Plan for slower growth, not a crash. The forecast is 0.9% growth by September 2027. Build deals that work if prices barely move, and treat any faster growth as a bonus.
- Shop the cooling list with discipline. Austin, Seattle, San Jose, and Washington, DC are cooling, which can mean more bargaining power. Check job trends and inventory first, because Cotality ties the cooling to job losses and building supply.
- Price carefully in flagged risk markets. If you own in Buffalo, the Cambridge area, Providence-Warwick, Tacoma-Lakewood, or Worcester, leave a wider margin and avoid paying today for growth that may not come.
- Mark December 1 on your calendar. Cotality releases its next index, with October 2026 data, on December 1, 2026. One more monthly dip would confirm the slowdown; a rebound would change the story.
The bottom line is simple. Prices rose 1.7% in a year, slipped 0.3% in a month, and are forecast to slow to 0.9%. The investors who do well in that kind of market are the ones who price the local trend, not the national headline.
Data: Cotality Home Price Index, September 2026 data, released November 3, 2026.
