Key Takeaways
- Sales in the early-reporting local markets tracked by Calculated Risk fell 13.7% year over year in October on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, a much steeper drop than the 5.2% decline those same markets posted in September.
- The consensus for the National Association of REALTORS® report due Thursday, November 12, is 3.87 million sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 3.99 million in September and only 20,000 above the current cycle low of 3.85 million from October 2023.
- October had one fewer working day than October 2025, 21 against 22, so the seasonally adjusted headline will not look as weak as the raw 13.7% drop suggests.
- New listings in those early markets fell 4.9% year over year after rising 1.0% in September, while inventory rose 4.3% year over year, up from a 2.2% gain the month before.
The national October sales number is not out until tomorrow. The local numbers that arrive first are already pointing down, hard.
Calculated Risk published its second look at local housing markets in October on November 11, 2026. The piece gathers the local market data released ahead of the National Association of REALTORS® existing-home sales report for October, which is scheduled for Thursday, November 12.
Early Markets Fell 13.7%, and the Drop Accelerated From September
In October, sales in these early-reporting markets were down 13.7% year over year, not seasonally adjusted. In September, those same markets were down 5.2% year over year on the same basis.
That is an acceleration, not a drift. Sales in all of these markets are also down sharply compared with October 2019, the last October before the pandemic era.
The regional data already published point the same way. Bright MLS reported Mid-Atlantic closed sales down 12.0% year over year in October, with new contracts down 17.4%, which sits close to the 13.7% decline in the Calculated Risk sample.
| Early-reporting local markets | October 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales, year over year, not seasonally adjusted | Down 13.7% | Down 5.2% |
| New listings, year over year | Down 4.9% | Up 1.0% |
| Inventory, year over year | Up 4.3% | Up 2.2% |
Supply is not rescuing the sales count. New listings fell 4.9% year over year in October after rising 1.0% in September, and new listings in most of these markets are down compared with October 2019.
Inventory still rose 4.3% year over year, faster than September’s 2.2% gain, because homes are sitting longer rather than because sellers are rushing in. Inventory is up in most of these markets compared with October 2019 as well.
Why Tomorrow’s Headline Will Not Read Minus 13.7%
Here is the part most coverage will skip. There was one fewer working day in October 2026 than in October 2025, 21 against 22, so the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted headline data will not be as negative as the raw local figure suggests.
The consensus expectation is 3.87 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That is down from 3.99 million in September, and down from the 4.11 million the NAR reported for October 2025, a gap of 240,000 sales, or about 5.8%, on the author’s arithmetic from those published figures.
- Consensus for October 2026: 3.87 million, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
- September 2026: 3.99 million.
- October 2025: 4.11 million.
- Current cycle low: 3.85 million in October 2023, only 20,000 below the consensus.
That last line is the real story for tomorrow. Calculated Risk’s reading of the early data is that October existing sales will be down significantly year over year and will likely be at a new cycle low, and its broader assessment is that existing-home sales in 2026 appear on track to be the lowest since 1994.
The timing behind the closings matters too. October sales were mostly for contracts signed in August and September, when mortgage rates averaged 6.67% in August and 6.86% in September, and closed sales next month, for November, will be negatively affected by the much higher mortgage rates seen in October.
That rate path also explains why owners are not supplying the missing sales. Realtor.com estimates the typical mortgage holder would pay 85.3% more a month to buy a median-priced home today, so most discretionary moves stay postponed and the sales that remain are the ones life forces.
How to Use a Preview Like This Before the Headline Lands
A preview is not the report, and Calculated Risk is explicit that this was just a few early-reporting markets. Treat it as a range-setter for tomorrow, not as the October number itself.
The forward signals are already moving in a different direction from October closings. Mortgage applications rose 6.2% in the week ending November 6 as the average 30-year conforming rate fell to 7.21%, but those applications describe November contracts, not the October closings NAR reports tomorrow, and the full local tables are in Calculated Risk’s second look at local housing markets in October.
- Mark the two lines that matter tomorrow. A print at or below 3.85 million is a new cycle low. A print near the 3.87 million consensus still leaves 2026 tracking at its lowest sales pace since 1994 on Calculated Risk’s assessment.
- Do not annualize the raw local drop. The 13.7% figure is not seasonally adjusted and October had one fewer working day. Compare the NAR headline with September’s 3.99 million and October 2025’s 4.11 million, not with the raw local percentage.
- Price for a slow November print too. November closings will reflect October’s much higher rates, so a weak headline tomorrow is likely to be followed by another soft one next month even if applications are now improving.
- Watch listings, not just sales. New listings swung from up 1.0% in September to down 4.9% in October in these markets. If sellers keep pulling back, low sales will not automatically mean falling prices, because inventory is only rising 4.3%.
For beginner investors, the fresh lesson is that tomorrow’s headline has a built-in cushion and a built-in trap. The working-day gap will soften the reported decline, while the level itself, anywhere near consensus, still sits within 20,000 sales of the lowest reading of this entire cycle.
Data source: Calculated Risk, Second Look at Local Housing Markets in October, published November 11, 2026; consensus, September and October 2025 NAR figures, and the October 2023 cycle low as reported there.
