Key Takeaways
- U.S. home-sale prices fell year over year for a third straight week in the four weeks ending November 1, 2026, with the median sale price down 0.4% to $388,604, according to Redfin.
- Pending sales fell to 275,484, down 16.4% year over year and the lowest level in Redfin records dating back to 2021, while new listings fell to 346,795, the lowest level since January.
- The surprise in the same report is on the asking side: the median asking price rose 2% year over year to $401,860, and the median monthly mortgage payment eased to $2,777, a five-week low.
Most readers will see the price dip and stop there. The more useful story is the gap that opened up inside the same report.
Sellers are asking more than they were a year ago. Buyers are closing for less than they were a year ago. That split, plus a record-low pending count, tells you where the negotiating power sits right now, and it is not where the asking prices suggest.
Prices Fell Again, and Both Sides Stepped Back
Redfin’s housing market update for the four weeks ending November 1 says prices declined for a third straight week after three years of increases.
Pending sales fell 0.6% week over week to the lowest level in records dating back to 2021. New listings dropped 1.5% from a week earlier to the lowest level since January, as would-be sellers reacted to slow demand.
| Four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2026 | Result | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $388,604 | Down 0.4% |
| Median asking price | $401,860 | Up 2% |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,777 at a 7.24% mortgage rate | Up 11.1% |
| Pending sales | 275,484 | Down 16.4% |
| New listings | 346,795 | Down 4.6% |
| Active listings | 1,501,917 | Up 2.1% |
| Months of supply | 4.6 months | Up from 4 months |
| Median days on market | 50 days | Up 1 day |
The monthly payment figure needs context. At $2,777, it is the lowest level in five weeks and down from a peak of $2,811 in early October, a $34 difference on the author’s subtraction of Redfin’s two published figures.
Redfin says costs declined because mortgage rates and sale prices are slowly coming down. That rate part lines up with the Freddie Mac survey released the same day, which put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.18%, while Redfin’s payment math uses a 7.24% rate.
The sales slowdown is also not a one-source reading. Zillow counted newly pending listings down 16.8% year over year in October, very close to Redfin’s 16.4% pending drop, even though the two firms measure the market differently.
The Asking Price Is Lying to You, in a Useful Way
Here is the fresh insight in this report. The median asking price is $401,860, up 2% from a year earlier, while the median sale price is $388,604, down 0.4%.
That is a $13,256 gap between what the typical seller asks and what the typical buyer pays, on the author’s subtraction of Redfin’s two published medians. The two medians cover different homes, so the gap is a market signal, not a discount on any one house.
- Sale-to-list ratio: 98.3%, essentially unchanged, so the typical sale still closes below the asking price.
- Price drops: 21.2% of listings had a price drop, up from 20.6% in the prior reading, so more than one in five sellers has already cut once.
- Sold above list: 23.21% of homes sold above list price, unchanged, so bidding over ask is now the exception, not the rule.
- Speed: 26.9% of homes went off the market in two weeks, down from 28%, and the median time on market is 50 days.
- Balance point: Months of supply is 4.6, and Redfin notes that 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, so this is a balanced market on paper with weak activity underneath it.
The metro split matters just as much. Among the 50 most populous metros, San Francisco posted the biggest median sale price increase at 17.3% year over year, while Fort Lauderdale fell 5.9%, Austin fell 5.8%, and Seattle fell 5.1%.
Pending sales declined in every single metro Redfin analyzed, for the fourth week in a row. The biggest pending drops were Seattle at 30.5%, San Diego at 26.9%, Atlanta at 26.3%, Denver at 24.6%, and Las Vegas at 22.6%.
New listings show the same split personality. San Jose listings rose 17.8% year over year, while San Antonio fell 17.7%, Dallas fell 13.5%, and Austin fell 13.3%.
For a first-time buyer, that local split is the whole ballgame. NAR’s 2026 Profile, also released November 5, shows first-time buyers are now a median age of 40, so a buyer who waits for a national headline to turn may miss a soft local market that is already negotiable.
What Beginner Investors Should Do While Sellers Retreat
This market is clearing through withdrawal, not through a price crash. Sellers who do not like the bids are pulling back, with new listings at the lowest level since January, instead of slashing prices across the board.
That shape rewards a specific playbook. You are not chasing falling knives, and you are not bidding against a crowd, because pending sales just hit a record low in data going back to 2021.
- Offer off the sale price, not the asking price. With asking prices up 2% and sale prices down 0.4%, anchor your offer to recent closed sales near the $388,604 national pattern in your market, not to the $401,860 style asking level, and cite the 98.3% sale-to-list ratio when you explain the number.
- Start with the one in five who already cut. A listing with a price drop, in the 21.2% group, has a seller who has already accepted reality once. Those sellers are more likely to trade a second cut or a concession for a clean, certain close.
- Use your 50 days. At a median 50 days on market, you have time to inspect fully, price repairs, and ask for closing cost help. Speed is worth less in this market; certainty and a firm close date are worth more.
- Pick your metro on purpose. Pending sales fell in every large metro, but prices rose 17.3% in San Francisco while falling 5.8% in Austin and 5.1% in Seattle. Run your numbers on your metro’s direction, not on the national average.
- Watch new listings, not just prices. If sellers keep retreating, the homes that stay listed get older and more negotiable. If new listings rebound from the January-level low, fresh competition among sellers can soften prices faster than the sale median has so far.
The bottom line: prices fell for a third straight week to $388,604, pending sales hit a record low at 275,484, and sellers still raised their asking prices to $401,860. Believe the closing numbers over the asking numbers, work the listings that have already cut, and let a slow, balanced market give you the inspection time and concessions a hot market never would.
Data: Redfin housing market update, four weeks ending November 1, 2026, released November 5, 2026. Redfin’s national metrics cover more than 900 U.S. metro areas, weekly housing data goes back through 2021, and figures are subject to revision.
