Key Takeaways
- Condo sellers outnumbered buyers by an estimated 123% nationwide in September, the widest gap in Redfin records dating back to 2013, up from 95.5% a year earlier.
- Condo buyers fell to an estimated 88,460, the lowest level in at least 13 years, while sellers rose to 197,248, and the national median condo sale price fell 0.8% to about $339,000.
- San Antonio had the widest metro gap at 458.5% more sellers than buyers, and the Sun Belt held nine of the 10 widest gaps; Nassau County, New York, was the only seller’s market among the 50 metros analyzed.
- Negotiating power is not the same as a cheap purchase: HOA fees, insurance premiums and special assessments decide whether a discounted condo is actually a good deal.
Condos have flipped from the hardest homes to win to the easiest homes to negotiate on. Redfin’s report on the September market, released November 9, 2026, puts the flip in one number: 123%.
That is how many more condo sellers than buyers Redfin estimated nationwide in September. It is the largest gap in records dating back to 2013, and it widened from 95.5% a year earlier.
Buyers Fell to a 13-Year Low While Sellers Kept Listing
The reversal from the pandemic-era boom is total. In September 2021, there were 25.1% fewer sellers than buyers.
Five years later, the number of buyers has fallen 54%, while the number of sellers has risen 36%. Sellers are now competing for a much smaller pool of buyers.
| U.S. condo market, September 2026 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Estimated condo buyers | 88,460, down 2.5% from August and the lowest in at least 13 years |
| Estimated condo sellers | 197,248, up 0.9% from the prior month |
| Seller surplus over buyers | 123%, up from 95.5% a year earlier |
| Single-family seller surplus, for comparison | 53.7% |
| Median condo sale price | About $339,000, down 0.8% year over year |
| Condos sold after a price reduction | About 37%, up from 16% five years earlier |
| Typical days on market before going under contract | 63 days, up from 35 days five years earlier |
The price drop matters because of its timing. The 0.8% decline to about $339,000 was the first year-over-year fall in five months, and it arrived while the weekly average mortgage rate stood at 7.18% as of November 5.
The pattern matches the rest of the fall market, where active inventory just posted its fastest weekly growth since January. Condos are simply where the imbalance is most extreme, at more than double the single-family gap.
Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, pointed to the opening this creates. “For renters who have saved for a down payment and are ready to build equity, these buyer-friendly conditions are an opportunity,” Khan said.
“Buyers have more options and a better chance of finding a place they like. Although condo prices and HOA fees remain relatively high, buyers have more room to negotiate price cuts, and condos are still generally more affordable than single-family homes,” he added.
Texas and the Sun Belt Hold the Widest Gaps, and One Metro Still Favors Sellers
The national average hides how lopsided some metros have become. Among the 50 most populous metro areas, San Antonio had the widest seller surplus, and the Sun Belt held nine of the 10 widest gaps.
| Metro | Sellers over buyers |
|---|---|
| San Antonio, TX | 458.5% |
| Houston, TX | 321.6% |
| Miami, FL | 273.6% |
| Austin, TX | 257.6% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 254.6% |
| Nashville, TN | 253.3% |
| Nassau County, NY | -31.9% (a seller’s market) |
Rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments are weighing on condos more than on single-family homes, particularly in Florida and Texas, where hurricane risk and other natural disasters have pushed insurance costs higher. New construction is adding to the softness in Sun Belt markets.
Derrell Skillman, a Redfin Premier agent in San Antonio, explained why cheap list prices are not closing deals. “San Antonio condos may have an attractive purchase price, but buyers are looking at the total monthly payment. Because we have so many affordable single-family homes available, many buyers choose a house when the payments are close,” Skillman said.
Nassau County was the only seller’s market among the 50 metros, with 32% fewer sellers than buyers, an estimated 1,545 buyers against 1,052 sellers. Chicago, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, Newark and San Francisco were balanced, with buyer and seller counts within 10% of each other.
San Francisco shows the exception is real, not a data quirk. Its median condo sale price jumped 20% year over year to nearly $1.2 million in September, a reminder that even in a national buyer’s market, the same price softness seen in the luxury entry price, which fell for a 31st straight month, does not reach every metro.
How to Use a 123% Seller Surplus Without Buying a Money Pit
The fresh insight in this report is that the discount is only half the deal. A condo’s ongoing costs decide whether the discount survives, which is the same lesson in the record $2,163 monthly cost of owning a home: the purchase price is the part you negotiate once, and the carrying costs are the part you pay every month.
- Negotiate like the data says you can. About 37% of condos that sold in September had a price reduction, and the typical condo took 63 days to go under contract. Cecilia Cordova, a Redfin Premier agent in Miami, put it plainly: “Find a motivated seller and there are a lot of them,” adding, “We have enough inventory for the next three to four years.”
- Underwrite the building, not just the unit. Researching the buildings you target is the key to finding a financially healthy community and avoiding surprise assessment bills later, Cordova said. Ask for the HOA budget, reserve position, insurance costs and any planned special assessments before you fall in love with a price cut.
- Compare the total payment against a house. In markets like San Antonio, buyers choose a single-family home when the payments are close. Run the condo’s mortgage, HOA fees, insurance and assessments side by side with a house payment, and let the cheaper total, not the cheaper list price, win.
- Sellers should price first or hold. Cordova suggests sellers who do not need to sell consider renting the condo out for the time being, and sellers who do need to sell list lower than anybody else in the same building rather than testing a higher price.
Redfin estimates buyers from proprietary data on the typical time between a buyer’s first home tour and closing, combined with MLS data on active listings and pending sales; the seller estimate is based on active MLS listings. The full metro table and methodology are in Redfin’s full condo report.
For beginner investors, the opportunity is real but narrow. A 123% seller surplus hands you leverage that did not exist five years ago, and the investors who use it well will spend that leverage on buildings with healthy finances, not on the deepest discount in a building whose next assessment wipes the discount out.
Data source: Redfin, condo buyer and seller estimates for September 2026, released November 9, 2026. Figures are national and metro estimates based on MLS data, as described above.
