If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to blink, it just did.
Redfin published a report today, October 14, that should stop every real estate investor in the country mid-scroll.
In September, there were an estimated 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market.
That’s the biggest gap Redfin has on record, going back to 2013. And it’s the fourth month in a row the record has been broken.
The Buyers Didn’t Just Slow Down. They Vanished.
Redfin estimates there were about 928,892 buyers in the market in September.
That’s the lowest number it has ever recorded, and the fifth straight monthly decline.
On the other side of the table, an estimated 1,510,784 sellers showed up, the most since March 2020.
The gap is widening fast, too. In August it was 56.9%. One month later, 62.6%.
Sellers aren’t listing because they’re desperate.
Many have simply given up waiting for rates to fall or demand to come roaring back. Some are selling now because they’re worried prices could drop if they wait longer.
Meanwhile, homes that do list are sitting longer. So the pool of stale listings keeps growing month after month.
41 of the 50 Biggest Metros Are Now Buyer’s Markets
Over 80% of the major metros Redfin tracks, 41 out of 50, are buyer’s markets. That’s the most on record.
We covered one of them this week. Denver’s housing market is shifting toward buyers, and the homes giving buyers the strongest leverage may surprise you.
The extreme end is the Sun Belt.
Miami leads the nation with 158.9% more sellers than buyers. Tampa sits at 103.7%.
In the 13 strongest buyer’s markets, sellers outnumber buyers by more than two to one. Every single one of those markets is in the Sun Belt. Four are in Texas. Four are in Florida.
Builders are a big part of the story.
Construction kept rolling across Texas and Florida even as buyer demand cooled. So brand new homes keep adding to the pile of inventory.
In Florida, buyers are also getting squeezed by rising insurance and HOA costs, on top of high prices and high rates.
Only 5 Seller’s Markets Are Left Standing
The entire country has just five seller’s markets left.
They are Nassau County, New York; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey; Milwaukee; and San Francisco.
In August, sale prices rose an average of 6.4% year over year in those five markets. Across all the buyer’s markets combined, prices rose just 1%.
Where buyers compete, prices climb. Where they don’t, prices stall. It’s that simple.
Why This Buyer’s Market Is Different
Redfin senior economist Asad Khan put it plainly: “This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength.”
Mortgage rates spending time above 7% did the damage, and first-time buyers are already retreating in rate-sensitive markets like Minnesota.
Redfin’s report from earlier this month showed pending home sales sank to their lowest level since spring 2014.
And 14.5% of the deals that did get signed in September fell through. That’s the highest share Redfin has ever recorded.
Buyers have options now, and they know it. They can be picky, negotiate hard, and walk away.
What Smart Investors Do With a Market Like This
Negotiate everything.
Price, closing costs, rate buydowns, repairs, longer inspection windows. When sellers outnumber buyers two to one in a market, the first offer is just the opening conversation.
Shop the stale listings.
The homes sitting the longest are where the motivated sellers are hiding. A listing that has already been through two price cuts is telling you something. Listen to it.
Underwrite to today’s numbers, not tomorrow’s hopes.
This buyer’s market exists because costs are high. If a property only works after rates drop, it doesn’t work. It has to cash flow with 7% money, today’s insurance, and today’s taxes.
Watch the Sun Belt, but respect the Midwest.
The deepest discounts are forming where builders overbuilt. Steadier markets are holding value better.
Even St. Louis, a buyer’s market itself, saw its seller surplus shrink to 24.5% in September while the Sun Belt’s kept growing.
The Bottom Line
Records like this don’t get set quietly, and they don’t last forever.
A 62.6% seller surplus is the kind of number investors talk about years later, usually with the words “I wish I had bought more” attached to it.
The buyers who can make the math work at today’s rates have more negotiating power than buyers have had in over a decade.
The buyers sitting on the sidelines are the reason why.
Data source: Redfin, “Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%, the Biggest Gap in at Least 13 Years,” published October 14, 2026.
