Key Takeaways
- Real REMAX Group’s Agent Optimism Index fell to 45.8 in September 2026 from 54.3 in August, below the 50 line that signals a net positive outlook.
- 65% of agents surveyed said 30-year mortgage rates must fall below 6% to meaningfully stimulate buyer demand, and 66% said buyers are pausing or delaying their home searches.
- 55% of agents called their local market buyer-favorable, the highest share since the survey began, while just 11% called it seller-favorable.
- If rates stay above 7% through 2027, nearly 60% of agents expect home prices to fall, including 33% who expect declines of more than 5%.
The people who show homes for a living just turned pessimistic, and they named one cause. Real REMAX Group’s September 2026 Agent Survey, released October 30, 2026, found agent optimism dropping below the neutral line in a single month.
The survey covered 177 real estate agents affiliated with The Real Brokerage Inc. across the United States and Canada. It was conducted between October 1, 2026 and October 9, 2026.
Optimism Fell 8.5 Points in One Month, and Transactions Fell With It
The Agent Optimism Index, which measures agents’ 12-month forward outlook, decreased to 45.8 in September from 54.3 in August. That drop took it below the 50 threshold that signals a net positive outlook.
Only 27% of agents reported feeling more optimistic than the prior month. A larger 39% reported feeling more pessimistic.
Activity told the same story. The Transaction Growth Index, which tracks home sales activity reported by agents within their local markets, decreased to 40.3 in September from 44.6 in August.
| Survey reading | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Agent Optimism Index | 54.3 | 45.8 |
| Transaction Growth Index | 44.6 | 40.3 |
| Agents calling their market buyer-favorable | 46% | 55% |
| Agents calling their market seller-favorable | 19% | 11% |
| Agents naming rates and affordability as buyers’ biggest challenge | 58% | 67% |
More than half of agents, 52%, reported fewer transactions compared to September 2025. Another 29% reported unchanged activity, and just 19% reported an increase.
That ground-level reading matches the hard data investors already have. Existing-home sales fell 5.5% in October to a 3.75 million annual pace, the lowest since August 2010, and agents in this survey are describing the same slowdown from inside the transaction.
Buyers Have the Leverage, and They Are Still Not Moving
Here is the fresh insight in this survey: leverage and demand have split apart. Fifty-five percent of agents characterized their local market as favoring buyers, up from 46% in August and the highest reading since the survey began, while 34% described their markets as balanced.
Yet buyers are not using that leverage to close. When asked how higher mortgage rates are affecting buyer behavior, 66% of agents cited buyers pausing or delaying home searches.
- 66% of agents said buyers are pausing or delaying their home searches.
- 44% said buyers are becoming more selective or negotiating more aggressively.
- 26% said buyers are lowering their target purchase prices.
- 67% named mortgage rates and affordability as the biggest challenge facing buyers, up from 58% in August and the highest reading since the survey began, ahead of economic uncertainty at 22% and inventory constraints at just 6%.
Sellers are adjusting in the opposite direction. Thirty-nine percent of agents cited prospective sellers delaying plans to list their homes, while 35% reported greater willingness among sellers to reduce asking prices and 34% reported sellers offering concessions.
Chairman and CEO Tamir Poleg put the split plainly: “Higher mortgage rates are putting renewed pressure on an already challenging housing market,” said Tamir Poleg, Chairman and CEO of Real REMAX Group. “Buyers have more negotiating leverage today, but affordability remains a significant obstacle, causing many to delay their home searches. Agents are also seeing sellers reconsider their plans or become more flexible on pricing. Looking ahead, the survey suggests that a sustained recovery in housing activity will depend heavily on meaningful relief in mortgage rates.”
The current weekly numbers do not deliver that relief. The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 7.11% in the week released November 12, its lowest in seven weeks, but that is still more than a full point above the level agents say buyers need.
The Sub-6% Line: What a Beginner Investor Should Do With It
Nearly two-thirds of agents, 65%, believe 30-year mortgage rates must fall below 6% to meaningfully stimulate buyer demand. Within that group, 28% identified a rate between 5.5% and 5.99%, while 37% said rates would need to fall below 5.5%.
The downside case is just as specific. If mortgage rates remain above 7% through 2027, approximately half of agents expect home sales to decline compared to 2026, while 36% expect activity to remain flat, and nearly 60% anticipate lower home prices, including 33% who expect declines of more than 5%.
- Use 6% as your scenario line, not a forecast. Underwrite any purchase twice: once at today’s rates above 7%, where agents expect flat-to-falling sales and prices, and once below 6%, where 65% of agents expect demand to meaningfully return. A deal that only works in the second scenario is a rate bet, not an investment.
- Negotiate like the survey says you can. With 55% of markets buyer-favorable, 35% of sellers more willing to cut asking prices, and 34% offering concessions, ask for the price cut and the concession before you offer more money. The leverage is documented; use it while the median monthly payment sits at $2,755, its lowest in six weeks, and sellers still feel the slow market.
- Watch the optimism index, not just the rate. Optimism fell 8.5 points in one month to 45.8, and the transaction index sits at 40.3. A month where optimism climbs back above 50 alongside a rate dip is a stronger buy signal than a rate dip alone, because it means the people closing deals see activity actually returning.
- Price your exit for the above-7% world. If rates stay above 7% through 2027, 33% of agents expect price declines of more than 5%. Build that decline into your resale assumptions now, and a softer 2027 becomes a plan you already made rather than a surprise.
Agents are not forecasting a crash. They are naming a threshold: below 6%, buyers come back; above 7%, prices soften. An investor who underwrites to that line knows exactly which side of it every deal sits on.
Data source: Real REMAX Group Inc., September 2026 Agent Survey, released October 30, 2026 via Business Wire; survey of 177 agents affiliated with The Real Brokerage Inc. in the United States and Canada, conducted October 1-9, 2026. Questions on buyer and seller behavior allowed multiple answers.
