Key Takeaways
- Sellers outnumbered buyers by 70.5% in October 2026, the widest gap in Redfin records dating back to 2013 and a record for a sixth straight month.
- Buyers fell to a record low of 895,752, down 2% in one month, while sellers rose 0.9% to 1,526,984, the most since March 2020.
- Just 3 of the 50 most populous metros were seller’s markets, all in the Northeast, and 41 were buyer’s markets, led by Miami at 195.8% more sellers than buyers.
- The gap widened because buyers retreated, not because sellers flooded the market, and even the 3 seller’s markets got weaker in October.
Homebuyers had more negotiating power in October than at any point in Redfin’s records. The brokerage’s October buyers-versus-sellers report, released November 12, counted an estimated 70.5% more home sellers than buyers nationwide.
That is the biggest gap in records dating back to 2013. It is also the sixth record-breaking month in a row, up from 65.6% in September.
The Gap Widened Because Buyers Left, Not Because Sellers Rushed In
The fresh insight in this report is what moved. Sellers did not flood the market in October; buyers stepped back, again.
| Measure, October 2026 | Level | Change from September |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated homebuyers | 895,752, lowest in records back to 2013 | -2%, sixth straight monthly decline |
| Estimated home sellers | 1,526,984, most since March 2020 | +0.9% |
| Seller surplus over buyers | 70.5%, biggest since at least 2013 | Up from 65.6% |
| Average mortgage rate in October | 7.33% | Up from 6.86% in September |
Redfin counts a market with over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market, and one with over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A gap within 10% either way is balanced.
Homes are piling up because many listings linger for months without going under contract, while new listings keep adding to the pool. That slow churn is the same pressure behind the early October sales data pointing to a possible new cycle low in today’s national sales report.
Some owners list anyway because they have given up waiting for lower rates, fear prices could decline, or need to move for a job or a growing family. Owners who do not need to move often hold off, which fits the lock-in math that would raise the typical mortgage holder’s payment 85.3% if they moved.
Only 3 Seller’s Markets Are Left, and All 3 Got Weaker
Just three of the 50 most populous metros were seller’s markets in October: Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ, and Montgomery County, PA. That ties the fewest in records dating back to 2016, matching April 2020, when the pandemic froze the market.
- Nassau County, NY: 24.7% fewer sellers than buyers, the strongest seller’s market, but down from 28.3% fewer in September.
- Newark, NJ: 14.3% fewer sellers than buyers, down from 17.6%.
- Montgomery County, PA: 12.1% fewer sellers than buyers, down from 20.1%.
Milwaukee, a seller’s market in September, moved to balanced in October. Six metros were balanced in all: Chicago, Boston, Providence, RI, New Brunswick, NJ, Milwaukee, and San Francisco.
Prices show what competition does. Home-sale prices rose an average of 3.3% year over year across the three seller’s markets in October, compared with a 0.3% uptick across the buyer’s markets.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said: “Buyers looking in these pockets of the Northeast should be prepared for a very different experience than buyers elsewhere in the country.”
Khan added: “They may have less room to negotiate, especially on desirable, move-in-ready homes, and could face multiple-offer situations. If you’re shopping in one of these markets, it’s especially important to know your budget, be ready to act when the right home comes along and avoid getting swept up in a bidding war.”
Miami, Nashville, and Las Vegas Lead a Sun Belt Buyer’s Market
On the other side, 41 of the 50 metros were buyer’s markets, matching September’s record. In the top 13 buyer’s markets, there were more than twice as many sellers as buyers.
| Strongest buyer’s markets, October 2026 | Sellers over buyers | September |
|---|---|---|
| Miami, FL | 195.8% | 160.5% |
| Nashville, TN | 159.5% | 134.3% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 149.9% | 122.8% |
Houston followed at 144.7% more sellers than buyers, then San Antonio at 131.7% and Orlando at 130.9%.
The seller surplus grew month over month in 34 of the 41 buyer’s markets. It shrank in seven, including Fort Worth, Austin, and Dallas, and every one of those seven is still a buyer’s market.
Redfin ties the Sun Belt pattern partly to robust homebuilding, which keeps adding homes as demand cools. In Florida, rising HOA and homeowners insurance costs add to the affordability squeeze.
Khan said: “A buyer-friendly market can help make homeownership a little more attainable, even if it doesn’t solve the affordability challenges that have kept many people on the sidelines.”
He added: “Sellers are increasingly competing for buyers’ attention, which can translate into price reductions, concessions and other savings. First-time buyers don’t have equity from a previous home to put toward a purchase, which makes saving for a down payment a big hurdle–but they also don’t have to sell a home before they can buy or give up a low mortgage rate. With a historic buyer’s market and home prices that are finally ticking down after three years of increases, first-time buyers who have been waiting–and can afford today’s costs–may have an opportunity to make a move.”
That last point is the practical edge for beginner investors and first-time buyers: you carry no home to sell and no cheap rate to surrender. Demand is already twitching back when rates dip, as last week’s 6.2% jump in mortgage applications showed, so the negotiating window can narrow fast.
- Shop the surplus, not the headline. In Miami, Nashville, Las Vegas, and the Texas and Florida metros above, ask for price cuts and seller concessions first; the counts say sellers are competing for you.
- Target listings that have lingered. The national pile-up is driven by homes sitting for months, and a stale listing is where a below-ask offer has its best chance.
- Flip your playbook in the Northeast pockets. In Nassau County, Newark, and Montgomery County, set a hard budget ceiling before touring and expect multiple offers on move-in-ready homes.
- Move while your leverage is measurable. Buyer counts just hit a record low; if rates ease and buyers return, the 70.5% surplus is the cushion that will shrink first.
Redfin estimates buyers using its proprietary data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to the close of a purchase, plus MLS data on active listings and pending sales; its seller count is the number of active listings in the MLS. The estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
Data source: Redfin, buyers versus sellers report for October 2026, released November 12, 2026, and the same report issued through PR Newswire the same day.
